Nov 1, 2018

Welcome

I am Assistant Professor for Decision Sciences at IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain. I am interested in decisions of all types, and in research on decision making from formal decision and game theory to psychological analyses and experiments.

These pages are meant to provide access to my publications and some of my working papers. Short abstracts for most of my articles are below, and for a complete list, have a look at the "Research" page. If you are looking for something else, or if you have any thoughts or questions, just get in touch.

Mar 1, 2018

In Press: When Payoffs Look Like Probabilities

Shlomi Sher, Craig R.M. McKenzie, and I have a new ARTICLE IN PRESS at the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. It's the result of a really fun project that raises some interesting questions about how numbers affect risk preferences. Here's the short abstract:

Decision makers are commonly seen as subjectively evaluating monetary gains with a concave “value function,” and probabilities with an inverse-S-shaped “weighting function.” But in experimental studies, form and content are often confounded: While probabilities are bounded, monetary gains are usually unbounded above. We hypothesized that bounded representations of monetary gains can yield inverse-S-shaped value functions, and unbounded representations of probabilities concave weighting functions. In several experiments, we document novel preference reversals predicted by our hypothesis.

Aug 2, 2017

In Press: The Role of Inference in Attribute Framing Effects

Lim Leong, a Ph.D. student at UC San Diego, Craig R.M. McKenzie, Shlomi Sher and I have a new ARTICLE IN PRESS at the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. Here's the short abstract:

Previous research has shown that a speaker’s choice between logically equivalent frames is influenced by reference point information, and that listeners draw accurate inferences based on the frame. Less clear, however, is whether these inferences play a causal role in generating attribute framing effects. We report two new experiments which suggest that frame-dependent inferences are sufficient to generate attribute framing effects, and that blocking such inferences may block framing effects. Our findings underscore the role of inferences in the generation and attenuation of attribute framing effects.

Aug 8, 2016

In Press: The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste

Shoham Choshen-Hillel, Meir Barneron, Ilan Yaniv and I have a new ARTICLE IN PRESS at Management Science. Here's the short abstract:

Decision makers can often enhance the accuracy of their beliefs about factual matters by combining others’ opinions. This article asks whether and when decision makers could similarly use others’ opinions to improve their judgments in matters of taste. In a theoretical analysis and two laboratory studies, we find that under specific conditions, decision-makers can make more accurate estimates of their own future preferences over stimuli or events by averaging others’ judgments regarding their respective preferences. We identify boundary conditions for our results, and relate them to accounts of the wisdom of crowds in estimating objective facts.

Nov 26, 2015

In Press: When Experience meets Description

Tomás Lejarraga and I have a new ARTICLE IN PRESS at Management Science. Here's the short abstract:

How do teams make joint decisions under risk when some team members learn about a prospect from description and others learn from experience? In a series of experiments, we found that two-person teams composed of one participant who learned from description and a second participant who learned from experience arrive at shared decisions via mutual concessions. This attenuated individual biases, such as the over- and underweighting of small probabilities. The social interaction thus led dyads to approximate normative standards more closely than individual decision makers. Finally, in processing experiential information, dyads appear sensitive to the reliability of the experience.

Mar 20, 2015

In Press: Transitivity in Context

Shlomi Sher, Craig McKenzie, and I have a new ARTICLE IN PRESS at Decision. Here's the short abstract:

Classic experiments led researchers to conclude that preferences are sometimes intransitive. On the basis of advances in statistical inference, it has recently been argued that there is a lack of evidence to warrant this conclusion. In a novel experimental paradigm, we provide evidence for intransitive cycles which holds up against the new standards derived from these mathematical advances. We argue that these intransitive cycles result from rational information processing, however, and that they are not “irrational.” This suggests a modified view of the relations between rationality, transitivity, and choice behavior.

Feb 14, 2015

In Press: Are Longshots only for Losers?

Craig McKenzie, Shlomi Sher, Charlette Lin, Michael Liersch, Anthony Rawstron, and I have a new ARTICLE IN PRESS at the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. Here's a short abstract:

Betting on longshots increases in the last race of a day of horse racing. Previous models have assumed that the effect is driven by bettors who have lost money and are trying to recoup their losses. To test this assumption, three experiments simulated a day at the races. The results showed a clear longshot bias in the last round, regardless of whether, and how many, points were gained or lost in previous rounds. Winning or losing, bettors prefer to “go out with a bang” at the end of a series of gambles.